Real income from agriculture - first estimate, 2023
Real factor income per AWU in agriculture remains at the previous year’s level
Factor income in 2023 is expected to decrease slightly due to the substantial price decrease in crop and animal output. Due to the cheaper inputs, production costs were also lower.
Factor income in agriculture slightly lower
In addition to economic conditions, which are further complicated by high inflation, weather conditions are increasingly challenging for agricultural production. This year, in addition to the above-average amount of rain, they were also affected by floods. All this affects income and increases the complexity of its assessment. In the areas of fruit and vegetables, in which Slovenia is the least self-sufficient, special attention is needed, especially in the area of vegetables, as volume production is expected to drop significantly for the second consecutive year.
In contrast to 2022, which was characterized by a high increase in the prices of agricultural products and inputs, this year agriculture faces a decrease in prices in both areas, both in terms of products and costs.
Factor income in agriculture is expected to be slightly lower than in the previous year (by 2%). The value of agricultural production is expected to be almost a tenth lower, and the costs more than a tenth lower due to the lower prices of inputs. At the same time, we assume that the subsidies were the same as in the previous year. The factor income per annual work unit (AWU) is expected to remain at the level of the previous year, due to the estimated lower employment (by 2%).
Volume of agricultural production at the previous year’s level, prices substantially lower
The value of agricultural production is expected to amount to EUR 1,554 million. The lower production value is the consequence of the unchanged volume and a tenth lower prices.
Crop value lower due to significantly lower prices
The value of crop production is expected to decrease by 15%, due to the volume increase by 2%, and the price decrease by 16%. A volume increase can be expected in almost all areas of crop production, where the above-average amount of rain had no negative consequences. In the field of fruit and vegetable production, where Slovenia is already low on self-sufficiency, a significantly lower volume is expected. We also expect a smaller production of wine.
Despite higher production, the value of production is expected to decrease due to significantly lower prices for most crops, except for potatoes and fodder plants. The largest drop in value is expected for cereals, which recorded high price growth last year. The value of cereal production is expected to decrease by more than 40% due to a more than 50% price decrease despite a larger volume (by almost a fifth). A third lower value is expected in fruit production due to almost half the volume despite higher prices (by 16%). In the case of vegetables, the value of the crop is expected to be almost a third lower, due to the volume decrease by a third. The value of olive oil is expected to be lower by almost a fifth mainly due to lower olive production. The value of wine is expected to be lower by almost a tenth due to the grape volume decrease (by 6%) and slightly lower prices. The value of industrial plants should also be lower by a tenth due to more than a tenth lower prices, despite slightly higher production.
Almost a fifth higher value is expected in the production of fodder plants due to more than a third volume increase and despite lower prices (by 14%). The value of potatoes is expected to be higher (by 15%) due to almost a fifth volume increase and despite slightly lower prices.
The animal output lower due to the price and volume decrease
It is estimated that the value of animal output will decrease by 5%. Animal output volume is expected to decrease by 2%, while the prices are expected to be lower by 3%.
At the aggregate level of animal output, no major change in volume is expected. Slightly lower animal output value (by 1%) is expected due to the lower volume and unchanged prices. As regards cattle, a decrease in value (by 8%) is expected due to lower production (by 4%) and lower prices (by 4%). Due to the price and volume decrease, a lower equines value is expected, while the lower value of sheep and goats is expected due to the price decrease. Only the values of pigs and poultry are expected to increase. As regards pigs, the higher value (by 9%) is to be the result of a price increase, while as regards poultry, it is the result of a volume increase (by 3%) and a price increase (by 3%).
The value of animal products is expected to be lower by a tenth due to the price and volume decrease. Milk has the biggest impact on the value of these products, where the value is expected to be lower by more than a tenth due to a volume decrease (by 2%) and a price decrease (by 9%). The value of egg production is expected to increase more than a tenth due to the volume and price increase. Other animal products are expected to reach a lower value due to the decline in volume.
Lower production costs are expected due to lower prices of inputs
Compared to the previous year, when a high price growth was recorded, costs are expected to decrease. According to our estimates, the value of intermediate consumption should decrease in real terms by 14%.
A significant reduction in the prices of all important inputs is expected. Fertilizer costs are expected to decrease the most (by more than a third) due to the drop in prices, and energy costs are expected to decrease by more than a tenth. Feed costs (by almost a fifth), veterinary service costs, maintenance costs and other costs are also expected to decrease. On the other hand, the cost of plant protection products, cost of services and of seeds are expected to increase.
Employment slightly lower
Employment is expected to decrease by 2%.
Tables with the latest data are available in the SiStat Database.
In addition to economic conditions, which are further complicated by high inflation, weather conditions are increasingly challenging for agricultural production. This year, in addition to the above-average amount of rain, they were also affected by floods. All this affects income and increases the complexity of its assessment. In the areas of fruit and vegetables, in which Slovenia is the least self-sufficient, special attention is needed, especially in the area of vegetables, as volume production is expected to drop significantly for the second consecutive year.
In contrast to 2022, which was characterized by a high increase in the prices of agricultural products and inputs, this year agriculture faces a decrease in prices in both areas, both in terms of products and costs.
Factor income in agriculture is expected to be slightly lower than in the previous year (by 2%). The value of agricultural production is expected to be almost a tenth lower, and the costs more than a tenth lower due to the lower prices of inputs. At the same time, we assume that the subsidies were the same as in the previous year. The factor income per annual work unit (AWU) is expected to remain at the level of the previous year, due to the estimated lower employment (by 2%).
Volume of agricultural production at the previous year’s level, prices substantially lower
The value of agricultural production is expected to amount to EUR 1,554 million. The lower production value is the consequence of the unchanged volume and a tenth lower prices.
Crop value lower due to significantly lower prices
The value of crop production is expected to decrease by 15%, due to the volume increase by 2%, and the price decrease by 16%. A volume increase can be expected in almost all areas of crop production, where the above-average amount of rain had no negative consequences. In the field of fruit and vegetable production, where Slovenia is already low on self-sufficiency, a significantly lower volume is expected. We also expect a smaller production of wine.
Despite higher production, the value of production is expected to decrease due to significantly lower prices for most crops, except for potatoes and fodder plants. The largest drop in value is expected for cereals, which recorded high price growth last year. The value of cereal production is expected to decrease by more than 40% due to a more than 50% price decrease despite a larger volume (by almost a fifth). A third lower value is expected in fruit production due to almost half the volume despite higher prices (by 16%). In the case of vegetables, the value of the crop is expected to be almost a third lower, due to the volume decrease by a third. The value of olive oil is expected to be lower by almost a fifth mainly due to lower olive production. The value of wine is expected to be lower by almost a tenth due to the grape volume decrease (by 6%) and slightly lower prices. The value of industrial plants should also be lower by a tenth due to more than a tenth lower prices, despite slightly higher production.
Almost a fifth higher value is expected in the production of fodder plants due to more than a third volume increase and despite lower prices (by 14%). The value of potatoes is expected to be higher (by 15%) due to almost a fifth volume increase and despite slightly lower prices.
The animal output lower due to the price and volume decrease
It is estimated that the value of animal output will decrease by 5%. Animal output volume is expected to decrease by 2%, while the prices are expected to be lower by 3%.
At the aggregate level of animal output, no major change in volume is expected. Slightly lower animal output value (by 1%) is expected due to the lower volume and unchanged prices. As regards cattle, a decrease in value (by 8%) is expected due to lower production (by 4%) and lower prices (by 4%). Due to the price and volume decrease, a lower equines value is expected, while the lower value of sheep and goats is expected due to the price decrease. Only the values of pigs and poultry are expected to increase. As regards pigs, the higher value (by 9%) is to be the result of a price increase, while as regards poultry, it is the result of a volume increase (by 3%) and a price increase (by 3%).
The value of animal products is expected to be lower by a tenth due to the price and volume decrease. Milk has the biggest impact on the value of these products, where the value is expected to be lower by more than a tenth due to a volume decrease (by 2%) and a price decrease (by 9%). The value of egg production is expected to increase more than a tenth due to the volume and price increase. Other animal products are expected to reach a lower value due to the decline in volume.
Lower production costs are expected due to lower prices of inputs
Compared to the previous year, when a high price growth was recorded, costs are expected to decrease. According to our estimates, the value of intermediate consumption should decrease in real terms by 14%.
A significant reduction in the prices of all important inputs is expected. Fertilizer costs are expected to decrease the most (by more than a third) due to the drop in prices, and energy costs are expected to decrease by more than a tenth. Feed costs (by almost a fifth), veterinary service costs, maintenance costs and other costs are also expected to decrease. On the other hand, the cost of plant protection products, cost of services and of seeds are expected to increase.
Employment slightly lower
Employment is expected to decrease by 2%.
Tables with the latest data are available in the SiStat Database.
Agricultural output, gross value added and employment, Slovenia
1) Estimate.
Annual changes of the main agregates in agriculture, Slovenia, 2023
1) The deflator is the implicit price index of GDP at market prices. According to Eurostat data, its value for the year 2022 is 108,714043993232. |
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE
Additional explanations are available in the methodological explanations.
When making use of the data and information of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, always add: "Source: SURS". More: Copyright.