Business tendency, Slovenia, October 2020
Only the construction confidence indicator higher
In October 2020, the confidence indicator in construction was higher, while the manufacturing confidence indicator was the same as in the previous month. The retail trade and services confidence indicators were lower.
Manufacturing confidence indicator the same
In October 2020, the manufacturing confidence indicator was the same as in September 2020. Compared to October 2019, it was higher by 3 percentage points (p.p.). It was 1 p.p. above the long-term average.
At the monthly level all situation indicators increased; just two expectations indicators decreased. The production expectations and the expected total demand indicators decreased (each by 1 p.p.). Again the expected employment indicator improved the most (by 6 p.p.).
Uncertain economic conditions still the main limiting factor
In October 2020, the current capacity indicator was 83%, 6.4 p.p. higher than in July 2020. Most of the quarterly indicators improved. The manufacturing enterprises were only pessimistic in assessing their current production capacities according to the expected demand in the next 12 months (the indicator went down by 14 p.p.). The competitive position on the domestic and non-EU markets improved by 9 p.p. each, and on EU markets by 6 p.p. The manufacturing enterprises were the most optimistic about the new orders (the indicator went up by 53 p.p.). The most important factor limiting production was uncertain economic conditions (stated by 36% of enterprises) and insufficient foreign and domestic demand (34% and 32% of enterprises, respectively). 18% of enterprises experienced no limits in their activity.
Retail trade confidence indicator lower
In October 2020, the retail trade confidence indicator was 13 p.p. lower than in September 2020, 14 p.p. below the long-term average and 18 p.p. lower than in October 2019. The indicator was lower for the second time in a row.
Most of the situation and expectation indicators decreased. The indicators of the expected sale and the expected orders decreased by 60 p.p. and 57 p.p. For other indicators, the changes were small (from 1 to 5 p.p.). Only the stock volume indicator recorded an improvement (by 21 percentage points).
The most important factor limiting the enterprises in retail trade was competition in own sector, which was stated by 50% of enterprises, 1 p.p. more than in the previous quarter. This was followed by low demand (32% of enterprises, by 3 p.p. lower) and high labour costs (30% of enterprises, the same as in the previous quarter).
Construction confidence indicator higher
In October 2020, the construction confidence indicator was 2 p.p. higher than in September 2020 and 5 p.p. lower than in October 2019. It was also 12 p.p. above the long-term average.
The overall order books indicator, which had a significant impact on the construction confidence indicator, improved (by 6 p.p.). The employment expectation indicator decreased by 3 p.p. and had a negative impact on the construction confidence indicator.
The most frequent limiting factors among construction enterprises were shortage of skilled labour and competition in own sector (stated by 37% and 32% of enterprises, respectively), followed by high cost of labour (30% of enterprises). 14% of enterprises experienced no limits in their activity.
Services confidence indicator lower
In October 2020, the services confidence indicator was 3 p.p. lower than in September 2020. Compared to October 2019, it was 23 p.p. lower and 15 p.p. below the long-term average. After four months of improvement, the indicator is lower this time.
The demand and expected demand indicators decreased, which had a significant impact on lowering the confidence indicator, while all other indicators increased.
The factor limiting service enterprises the most was insufficient demand (in 35% of enterprises, by 6 p.p. lower than in the previous quarter), followed by financial constraints (16%, by 2 p.p. lower). 27% of enterprises experienced no limits in their activity, which was 3 p.p. lower than in the previous quarter.
Data are seasonally adjusted.