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Business tendency, Slovenia, May 2020

Confidence in manufacturing and retail trade improved

Confidence improved in manufacturing and retail trade, while in construction it is still falling. In services the confidence indicator was the same as in the previous month.

  • 5/25/2020
  • |
  • final data

Manufacturing confidence indicator higher

In May 2020 the manufacturing confidence indicator was 12 percentage points (p.p.) higher than in April 2020. Compared to May 2019 it was lower by 30 p.p. It was also 27 p.p. below the long-term average.

The increase in the confidence indicator in May was mostly caused by the production expectations indicator, which went up by 40 p.p. It was also influenced by the stocks of finished products indicator (up by 7 p.p.), while the overall order books indicator decreased (by 10 p.p.).

Retail trade confidence indicator higher in May

In May 2020 the retail trade confidence indicator was 6 p.p. higher than in April 2020. Compared to May 2019, it was 48 p.p. lower and 35 p.p. below the long-term average.

The values of the situation indicators decreased, most notably the business situation (by 22 percentage points). Among expectation indicators, the indicators of the expected sales and the expected orders increased (by 29 and 12 p.p., respectively). This is probably the result of the easing of measures and progressive opening of stores and other commercial activities.

Decline of the construction confidence indicator continues

In May 2020 the construction confidence indicator was 2 p.p. lower than in April 2020 and 41 p.p. lower than in May 2019. It was also 16 p.p. below the long-term average.

At the monthly level most of the situation and expectation indicators deteriorated, only three indicators improved: the order books expectations indicator (by 27 p.p.), the business situation indicator (by 15 p.p) and the price expetations indicator (by 3 p.p.).

Services confidence indicator the same as in April

In May 2020 the services confidence indicator was the same as in April 2020. Compared to May 2019, it was 57 p.p. lower and 50 p.p. below the long-term average.

All situation indicators declined and all expectations indicators improved. Situation indicators (business situation, demand and employment) reached their lowest values in the entire observation period, which began in April 2002. Expectations indicators achieved the lowest values in April 2020 and all improved in May. Also in services enterprises became more optimistic about expectations regarding demand, employment and selling prices, due to the easing of measures for limiting the coronavirus epidemic.

Monthly changes in the value of confidence indicators, Slovenia, May 2020
Monthly changes in the value of confidence indicators, Slovenia, May 2020
Source: SURS
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE
Due to the measures in force in the Republic of Slovenia for limiting the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic, SURS is faced with difficulties in data collection, checking and processing. In this situation SURS continues to be obliged to timely publication of data.

The data are based on the Bussines Tendency Survey, which was answered between 1 and 15 May of 2020. The response rate in May 2020 amounted to 87 %, which was 4 percentage points lower than the average response rate in 2019 (91 %).

Data are seasonally adjusted.
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