Real income from agriculture - first estimate, Slovenia, 2019
In 2019 the real factor income per AWU in agriculture expected to decrease by 12% over 2018
Crop output value is expected to be lower due to the volume decrease in comparison with 2018. Animal output value is expected to increase slightly due to the price and volume increase. Production costs are expected to remain at the previous year’s level.
Factor income in agriculture decreased in comparison with the good 2018 harvest
Compared to 2018, in 2019 a 13% decrease in the real factor income in agriculture – which equals the net value added less other taxes on production plus other subsidies on production – is expected. Lower factor income is expected to be influenced by lower production value in comparison with the 2018 good harvest and extraordinary fruit and grapes harvest that had a positive influence on the production value and all of the income indicators. Factor income decrease in 2019 was influenced by lower value of agricultural production and by the assumption that the subsidies value will stay at the previous year’s level in nominal terms and decline by 3% in real terms. The factor income per annual work unit is expected to decrease by 12% due to a slight decrease in employment.
In 2019 lower volume and the prices of agricultural products only slightly higher
According to the first estimate, the value of the agricultural output in 2019 is expected to amount to EUR 1,320 million, which is a decrease by 6% over the previous year. The volume is expected to decrease by 7% and the prices to increase by 1%.
Lower crop output value due to the lower volume, with the exception of potato and vegetables output values
Crop value is expected to decrease due to the lower values in almost all crops; the value of fruit, grapes and wine decreased the most in comparison with the extraordinary harvest 2018. Crop output value is expected to decrease by 12% due to the 13% volume decrease, while the prices are expected to increase by 1% compared with the previous year.
The main reason for the crop output value decrease compared with 2018 is the lower volume and higher prices with the exception of cereals. The value of cereals is expected to decrease due to the substantial price decrease despite the volume increase compared with 2018. Substantially lower volumes are expected in fruits (by almost a half), while prices are expected to increase. The value of grapes and wine will decrease by more than 10% for the same reason. The value of industrial crops is expected to decrease due to the one fifth volume decrease, despite the price increase. Higher output values are expected of potato and vegetables. Potato value is expected to increase by a quarter despite the volume decrease by a fifth due to the price increase by almost 40%. Vegetables output value is expected to increase by 2% due to the price increase.
The animal output value increase due to the slight price and volume increase
According to the estimate, the animal output is expected to increase by 2% due to the 1% price increase and 1% volume increase.
The value of animal output in 2019 is expected to increase by 2% due to the volume increase, while the prices remain at the previous year’s level. However, the situation in the production of different types of livestock varies. The largest increase in output value is expected for pigs (by 16%), the price of which will increase by 12%. The cattle output value is expected to decrease by 2% due to the price decrease despite the volume increase. The value of poultry is expected to remain at the previous year level. The output value of sheep and goats is expected to decrease due to the price decrease in real terms compared with 2018.
The animal products output is expected to increase by 1%, mainly due to the price increase. Milk output value is expected to increase, despite the volume decrease, due to the price increase. The eggs output value is expected to increase due to the volume increase.
Costs of agricultural production to remain at the previous year’s level
The value of intermediate consumption is expected to decrease by 1% in real terms. The main reason is the expected 1% volume decrease, while the prices are expected to slightly decrease. Lower costs are expected for feedingstuffs and energy due to the decreased prices, while for all other kinds of intermediate consumption costs the same or higher values than in the previous year are expected. The highest value increase is expected by seeds, fertilisers and plant protection products due to the price increase.
Slight employment decrease
Compared with the previous year it is expected that employment will decrease in 2019 by 1%.
Annual changes of the main agregates in agriculture, Slovenia, 2019
1) The deflator is the implicit price index of GDP at market prices. According to Eurostat data is 102.671008 for the year 2019.