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According to the results of EUROPOP2018 population projections produced by Eurostat for all EU Member States, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, Slovenia is projected to have a population of just under 1.8 million in 2100.
What is projected to happen to the population of Slovenia in the coming decades?
The population of Slovenia is projected to increase until around 2023 (to about 2,088,000), and then slowly decrease. On 1 January 2100 Slovenia's population is expected to be 1,796,000 or 13% less than in the projections' base year 2018.
In 2100, 1,800 more residents are projected to immigrate to Slovenia than emigrate from it. That is nearly 90% less than the net migration recorded in 2018.
In the future the total fertility rate is projected to mostly gradually increase and reach 1.77 in 2100. Life expectancy at birth is expected to increase as well, and boys born in Slovenia in 2100 could expect to live 89 years, and girls nearly 93 years.
Despite assumed greater fertility, the population of Slovenia expected to age
In the coming decades, the age structure of Slovenia's population is expected to change significantly. In 2018, the elderly (aged 65 or more) stood for 19.4% of the population, while in 2055 this share is projected to be at nearly 32%, and in 2100 at just over 31%.
The share of children (under 15 years of age) is expected to increase for a few more years (2021: 15.2%) and then start to drop and reach its minimum (about 12.9%) in 2037. It is then projected to rise again and reach 13.9% in 2100.
Population projections are an attempt to predict the future demographic development in a certain area. Because they are based on a number of assumptions which are usually very uncertain, population projections are just one of the possible scenarios for the future.
EUROPOP2018 population projections are based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and international migrations. The most uncertain assumptions are those for migrations, since migrations largely depend on economic and political circumstances that are very difficult to predict. It is impossible to include short-term changes in the demographic components in population projections, and all the possible demographic consequences of the turbulent events of the last few years (economic developments, strong migration flows towards the EU) cannot be fully included in these projections.
These population projections are based on the assumption of partial convergence, meaning that socio-economic differences among countries included in the projections will decrease over the long term. Therefore all countries are expected to become more similar demographically over the very long term.
EUROPOP2018 population projections are produced by Eurostat. SURS publishes EUROPOP2018 population projections as official projections for Slovenia. Projections for other countries published by Eurostat can differ from official national projections of respective countries.
The starting number of population for these projections is the value on 1 January 2018, which is why they are called EUROPOP2018.
The main assumptions and the results of EUROPOP2018 for Slovenia are published in the SiStat database. More detailed data (also for other countries included in the projections) are available in the Eurostat database.
Demographic balances and selected indicators, EUROPOP2018, Slovenia