EUROPOP2023 population projections for Slovenia

EUROPOP2023: further population ageing projected for the coming decades

According to the results of EUROPOP2023 population projections produced by Eurostat for all EU Member States, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, Slovenia is projected to have a population of about 1,951,000 in the year 2100.

  • 24 May 2023 at 10:30
  • |
  • final data
What is projected to happen to the population of Slovenia in the coming decades?

The population of Slovenia is projected to increase until around 2026 (to about 2,121,000), and then slowly decrease. On 1 January 2100, Slovenia's population is expected to be 1,951,000 or 7% fewer than in the projections' base year 2022.

In 2100, 5,600 more residents are projected to immigrate to Slovenia than emigrate from it. That is about two-thirds fewer than the provisionally recorded net migration 2022.

In the future, the total fertility rate is projected to mostly gradually increase and reach 1.72 in 2100. Life expectancy at birth is expected to increase as well, and boys born in Slovenia in 2100 could expect to live 89 years, and girls nearly 93 years.

Despite assumed greater fertility, the population of Slovenia expected to age

In the coming decades, the age structure of Slovenia's population is expected to change significantly. In 2022, the elderly (aged 65 or more) stood for just over 21% of the population, while in 2100 this share is projected to be at more than 32%.

The share of children (under 15 years of age) is expected to decrease for some time and drop to the lowest value (12.5%) in 2037. It is projected to reach 13.0% in 2100.


The main assumptions and the results of EUROPOP2023 for Slovenia are published in the SiStat Database. More detailed data (also for other countries included in the projections) are available in the
Eurostat database.

Demographic balances and selected indicators, EUROPOP2023, Slovenia
Population on 1 January2,120,7702,118,8062,109,8582,094,0232,049,8572,002,1451,974,0161,960,4891,950,820
Live births17,21316,66218,55317,79316,38717,10917,06316,30416,545
Net migration5,8816,1386,7356,3685,7706,0086,1995,6545,565
Population (%)
  aged 0-14 years14.613.412.613.513.112.813.413.313
  aged 15-64 years63.262.46056.3565755.554.754.9
  aged 65 years and more22.324.327.430.230.930.231.131.932.1
  aged 80 years and more5.
Total fertility rate1.61.621.651.671.681.691.71.711.72
Life expectancy at birth - men79.18081.783.284.68687.288.389.4
Life expectancy at birth - women8585.78788.289.490.591.592.493.3
Source: Eurostat
Population projections are an attempt to predict the future demographic development in a certain area. Because they are based on a number of assumptions that are usually very uncertain, population projections are just one of the possible scenarios for the future.

EUROPOP2023 population projections are based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and international migrations. It is impossible to include short-term changes in the demographic components in population projections, and all the possible demographic consequences of the turbulent events of the last few years (such as »Brexit«, the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine) cannot be fully included in these projections.

These population projections are based on the assumption of partial convergence, meaning that socio-economic differences among countries included in the projections will decrease over the long term. Therefore, all countries are expected to become more similar demographically over the very long term.

EUROPOP2023 population projections are produced by Eurostat. SURS publishes EUROPOP2023 population projections as official projections for Slovenia. Projections for other countries published by Eurostat can differ from official national projections of respective countries.

EUROPOP2023 population projections were first published in March 2023, which is why they are called EUROPOP2023.

Metadata and a more detailed note are available on the Eurostat website.

When making use of the data and information of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, always add: "Source: SURS". More: Copyright.