April excessive deficit procedure report, Slovenia, 2013–2016, forecast 2017

Revised government deficit in 2016 at 1.8% of GDP or 0.3 p.p. higher than the first estimate in March.

As a result of a revision during the standard excessive deficit procedure for Slovenia the general government deficit for the period 2013-2016 was revised. The negative impact of the revision for the period 2013-2016 was mainly due to the adjustment of interests on the expenditure side.

  • 4/20/2017
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According to the first revision government deficit in 2016 amounted to EUR 733 million or 1.8% of GDP, which is EUR 124 million or 0.3 of a percentage point more than within the first release end of March (EUR 609 million or 1.5% of GDP). The deficit in 2016 was similar to the deficit recorded for 2004; back than it amounted to EUR 544 million or 2.0 % of GDP (see Chart). Due to the revision the deficit in 2015 has increased by EUR 110 million or by 0.3 of a percentage point and amounted to EUR 1,126 million or 2.9% of GDP. The impact of the revision on the deficit in 2013 and 2014 was smaller.

The negative impact of the revision on the deficit for the period 2013-2016 was mainly due to the inclusion of the adjustment for interest paid related to cross-currency swaps in the period 2012-2014. The impact of the revision in that respect was significant in 2015 and 2016; deficit in 2015 increased by EUR 126 million or by 0.3 of a percentage point and in 2016 by 92 million or by 0.2 of a percentage point (see Table 1). See also the explanation on swaps below. Other corrections of deficit due to the revision in that respect were lower: in 2016 the deficit increased by EUR 32 million, in 2015 and 2014 there was a decrease (EUR 16 million for 2015 and EUR 13 million for 2014).

In line with the revision all relevant annual and quarterly government accounts data, including data on general government expenditure by function, were aligned.

Consolidated general government debt at the end of 2016 remains unchanged (EUR 31,677 million or 79.7 % BDP).

The forecast of the general government deficit and debt in 2017

Data published in this issue are in line with the Excessive Deficit Procedure and must be sent to Eurostat with the regular first annual report on government deficit and debt figures in the 2013-2016 period. The report was prepared by the Statistical Office in cooperation with the Bank of Slovenia and the Ministry of Finance. The report includes the forecast for 2017 on general government deficit and consolidated gross debt at the end of 2017. Deficit for 2017 is estimated at EUR 337 million or 0.8 % of GDP. Consolidated gross debt of the general government for the end of 2017 is estimated at EUR 32,052 million or 77.0% of GDP.

How in government finance statistics cross-currency swaps impact the recording of interest?

In the period 2012-2014 Slovenia issued bonds denominated in US dollars. Total volume of bonds at the end of 2014 amounted to USD 9.250 billion. Since there was a currency risk arising from these bonds, Slovenia decided to hedge bonds with cross-currency swaps. In this way, transactions in US dollar were converted into euros by the fixed exchange rate and the agreed interest rate. In line with ESA 2010 methodology all interest in government finance statistics should be recorded by taking into account current exchange rate EUR/USD on the day of the interest payment and not the fixed exchange rate issued by cross-currency swaps. This impact should be presented in the accounts separately with the impact on deficit as well. Changes in currency exchange rates EUR/USD were the largest in 2015 and 2016, and, consequently, the impact of the revision on the deficit was in that respect here the largest. Cross-currency swaps will have the influence on the level of interest until their maturity.

Chart 1: General government deficit, Slovenia
Chart 1: General government deficit, Slovenia
1) Forecast.
Source: SURS
Table 1: Revision of the main aggregates and categories of the general government, 2013-2016, forecast 2017
201320142015201620171)
mio. EUR
Surplus (+)/ Deficit (-)
Published on 31st March 2017-5,420-1,970-1,016-609
The impact of revisions-5-35-110-124
  1. Adjustments for Cross Currency Swaps-5-48-126-92
  2. Other revisions01316-32
Published on 20th April 20172-5,426-2,005-1,126-733-337
Debt at the end of the year
Published on 31st March 201725,50530,19932,07131,67732,052
… no data available
1) Forecast.
2) Some totals and calculations do not add up due to rounding.
Source: SURS
Table 2: Revision of the main aggregates and categories of the general government, 2013-2016, forecast 2017
201320142015201620171)
% of GDP
Surplus (+)/ Deficit (-)
Published on 31st March 2017-15.1-5.3-2.6-1.5
The impact of revisions0.0-0.1-0.3-0.3
  1. Adjustments for Cross Currency Swaps0.0-0.1-0.3-0.2
  2. Other revisions0.00.00.0-0.1
Published on 20th April 20172-15.1-5.4-2.9-1.8-0.8
Debt at the end of the year
Published on 31st March 201771.080.983.179.777.0
… no data available
1) Forecast.
2) Some totals and calculations do not add up due to rounding.
Source: SURS
Detailed data and time series are available on the SI-STAT data portal.
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