Population projections for Slovenia 2015

Projections 2015: in 2080 population down, the share of the elderly up

According to the results of Population Projections 2015, produced in cooperation between Eurostat and national statistical offices for all EU Member States and Norway, Slovenia is expected to have a population of 1,940,000 in 2080.

  • 3/28/2017
  • |
  • final data

What is projected to happen to the population of Slovenia in the next 65 years?

The population of Slovenia is projected to increase until around 2025 (to about 2,083,000), and then slowly decrease. On 1 January 2080 Slovenia's population is expected to be 1,938,000 or 6% less than in the projections' base year 2015.

In 2080, 2,400 more residents are expected to immigrate to Slovenia than emigrate from it. That is nearly five times the net migration recorded in 2015.

In the future the total fertility rate is projected to mostly gradually increase and reach 1.85 in 2080. Life expectancy at birth is expected to increase as well, and boys born in Slovenia in 2080 could expect to live 87 years, and girls more than 91 years.


Despite assumed greater fertility, the population of Slovenia expected to age

In the next 65 years, the age structure of Slovenia's population is expected to change significantly. In 2015, the elderly (aged 65 or more) stood for 17.9% of the population, while in 2057 this share is projected to be at nearly 31%, and in 2080 at 29%.

The share of children (under 15 years of age) is expected to increase for a few more years (2021: 15.3%) and then start to drop and reach its minimum (about 13.4%) in about 20 years. It is then projected to rise again and reach 15.7% in 2080.


Methodological background

Population projections are an attempt to predict the future demographic development in a certain area. Because they are based on a number of assumptions which are usually very uncertain, population projections are just one of the possible scenarios for the future.

Population Projections 2015 are based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and international migrations. The most uncertain assumptions are those for migrations, since migrations largely depend on economic and political circumstances that are very difficult to predict. It is impossible to include short-term changes in the demographic components in population projections, and all the possible demographic consequences of the turbulent events of the last few years (economic crisis, strong migration flows towards the EU) cannot be fully included in these projections.

These population projections are based on the assumption of convergence, meaning that socio-economic differences among countries included in the projections will decrease over the long term. Therefore all countries are expected to become more similar demographically over the very long term.

Population Projections 2015 are the result of close discussions between Eurostat and national statistical offices of all included countries. During the preparation of these projections, SURS consulted its population projections working group (consisting of experts and other stakeholders) regarding the assumptions.

The starting number of population for these projections is the value on 1 January 2015, which is why they are called Population Projections 2015.


Data

The main assumptions and the results of Population projections 2015 are published on the SI-STAT Data Portal. More detailed data (also for other countries included in the projections) are available in the Eurostat database.
Chart 1: Population by age and sex, Population projections for Slovenia 2015
Chart 1: Population by age and sex, Population projections for Slovenia 2015
Source: Eurostat database
Table 1: Demographic balances and selected indicators, Population projections for Slovenia 2015
201520202025203020402050206020702080
Population on 1 January2,062,8742,075,7782,083,2712,080,1452,066,0862,045,0902,000,4541,956,5221,938,449
Live births20,64119,20017,77117,40419,57319,47018,52219,64820,191
Deaths19,83420,60121,68522,63925,20826,76226,33725,48022,925
Net migration5024,2063,7934,1264,2843,7652,8312,5132,445
Population (%)         
  aged 0-14 years14.815.214.913.913.514.814.814.815.7
  aged 15-64 years67.364.362.461.158.454.754.956.655.7
  aged 65 years and more17.920.422.824.928.130.530.328.528.6
  aged 80 years and more4.85.56.16.89.711.412.813.612.2
Total fertility rate1.571.621.641.661.701.741.781.811.85
Life expectancy at birth - men77.778.979.780.481.983.384.685.887.0
Life expectancy at birth - women83.484.485.185.786.988.089.190.191.1
Source: Eurostat database
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE
SURS publishes Population Projections 2015 as official projections for Slovenia. Projections for other countries published by Eurostat can differ from official national projections of respective countries.
Detailed data and time series are available in the SI-STAT database.
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